|
|
|
|
 |
|
Eurofer eyeing market growth in Q4'09
Feb 6, 2009
Due to the intensifying impact of the global credit crisis, spreading from the financial sectors into other parts of the economy, the
EU economy has been pushed into a severe recession at the start of 2009.
Due to its specific background and geographical scope, the current downturn is extremely difficult to put into an historic perspective. Nevertheless, provided that the policy measures are timely adopted and effective, the largest probability is still given to a base scenario in which the recession will start bottoming out by late 2009. The latest forecasts of EUROFER’s Economic Committee show EU GDP growth falling this year by 1.9%; a slight improvement in economic conditions is pencilled in for 2010.
The significant deterioration in economic fundamentals since autumn 2008 is fully reflected in the outlook for the
EU steel using industries; the first half of this year will see output falling by 10% y-o-y. The second half is expected to see a gradual easing of the downward trend, but on balance production in the steel using sectors will still fall 7-8% in 2009. Particularly the automotive sector is badly affected by the recession, but also construction, steel tubes and the engineering sectors cannot escape a sharply downward trend. Most sectors will see a mild improvement in 2010.
The
EU steel market is severely impacted by the recession and will be facing an unprecedented downturn this year. The outlook for the first half of 2009 is for a continuation of the double-digit y-o-y decline in real consumption registered in Q4’08 and a further stock correction in the distribution chain and at the end-user level. As a result, apparent consumption will drop by 29% y-o-y in the 1st quarter and by a further 23% y-o-y in the 2nd quarter. Apparent consumption will continue to decline in the remainder of 2009, albeit at a less dramatic rate; Q4’09 is expected to see some growth again compared with the very low Q4’08 level. Despite the projected 11% decline in imports in 2009, import pressure will remain high because of the much stronger sacrifice the domestic producers are making in order to enable the market to reach a new equilibrium.
Following the 15% drop in 2009, some growth in apparent consumption is foreseen for 2010, owing to the absence of a huge stock reduction as seen in 2009.
In addition, make sure to read these articles:
Eurofer changes identity
Europe must steel itself to rethink its emissions policy
Rebound manufacturing sector good news for EU steel market
Wolfgang Eder new Eurofer president
Eurofer eyeing market growth in Q4'09
Karl-Ulrich Köhler new Eurofer president
|
 top of page
back
Tell a friend
print
read times
© 2009 GRIPS Intermedia GmbH All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.
|
|
 All external sites will open in a new browser.
GRIPS media does not endorse external sites.
|
|
