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IISI short range outlook
Apr 14, 2008
The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) forecasts 2008 will still be another strong year for the steel industry with apparent steel use rising from 1,202 million metric tons (mmt) in 2007 to 1,282 mmt in 2008, an increase of 6.7%. New projections for 2009 suggest a global growth rate of 6.3%.
The IISI Executive Committee reviewed the forecasts at its meeting in St Petersburg. Commenting on the forecasts, Ku-Taek Lee, IISI Chairman said: "The underlying assumption behind this forecast is that although some weakening in the US and EU economies is expected, demand for steel will remain healthy thanks in part to the emerging markets which will maintain their own dynamism."
The
BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries will again be leading the growth with an expected increase of 11.1% for 2008 and 10.3% for 2009. However, as steel demand growth increases in other emerging countries, the large gap in growth rate - that we have come to expect in recent times - between BRIC countries and the rest of the world (ROW) will narrow.
China apparent steel use is expected to grow by 11.5% in 2008 and 10.0% in 2009, accounting for 35% of the world total in 2008. This is expected to reach 36.7% of world total by 2009. For India, forecasts for apparent steel use point to an increase of 8.9% in 2008 and 12.1% in 2009.
Growth in the
Russian market is forecasted to remain strong with 10.2% for 2008 and 11.2% for 2009, led mainly by the energy and construction sectors. Apparent steel use in Brazil is expected to increase by 10.3% for 2008 and 8.9% for 2009, reflecting strong growth in the automotive, construction and engineering sectors.
In the
EU (27), the growth in steel demand is predicted to continue at a more modest pace, following 2007 adjustments in inventory positions, leading to growth of 1.6% in 2008 and 2.3% in 2009.
2007 apparent steel use in the
NAFTA region showed negative growth of -9.1% due to the slowing economy, inventory liquidation and decreased imports. 2008 will show a more stable position despite the weak uncertain economy leading to a positive growth forecast of 1.9% and 1.0% for 2009.
Table 1: Apparent steel use
|
Short range outlook for apparent steel use (2007-2009) in
mmt |
|
Regions |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
% 06/07 |
% 07/08 |
% 08/09 |
|
EU (27) |
192.2 |
195.3 |
199.8 |
3.4 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
|
Other Europe |
31.2 |
33.1 |
35.3 |
9.4 |
6.0 |
6.7 |
|
CIS |
55.5 |
60.5 |
66.3 |
13.7 |
8.9 |
9.6 |
|
NAFTA |
141.5 |
144.2 |
145.6 |
-9.1 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
|
Central and South America |
41.0 |
44.6 |
47.7 |
13.7 |
8.9 |
7.0 |
|
Africa |
25.3 |
26.8 |
28.4 |
8.5 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
Middle East |
44.3 |
49.2 |
53.6 |
12.7 |
11.1 |
9.0 |
|
Asia and Oceania |
670.6 |
728.3 |
786.5 |
10.0 |
8.6 |
8.0 |
|
World |
1201.6 |
1282.1 |
1363.3 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
6.3 |
|
BRIC |
520.9 |
578.5 |
637.8 |
13.1 |
11.1 |
10.3 |
|
World (excl. NAFTA) |
1060.1 |
1137.9 |
1217.7 |
9.1 |
7.3 |
7.0 |
|
World (excl. China) |
793.3 |
827.0 |
862.7 |
3.6 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
|
World (excl. BRIC) |
680.7 |
703.5 |
725.4 |
2.2 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
In addition, make sure to read these articles:
IISI changes name to World Steel Association (worldsteel)
Steel industry appeals for governments to use life cycle thinking in environmental impact studies
Steel industry launches global CO2 emissions data collection programme
IISI short range outlook
A global sector approach to CO2 emissions reduction for the steel industry
World crude steel output increases by 7.5% in 2007
2007 will be another strong year for the steel industry
Global approach for steel to address climate change
Steel industry - key challenges
Steel industry commits to reduce CO2
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