Another record year for global steel production in 2008 By Jamie Milnes, MEPS
Feb 15, 2008
MEPS - Global Crude Steel Production Estimate (tonnes)
Region
2007
2008(f)
EU 25
210.0
215.5
Other Europe
30.5
33.4
Former USSR
124.4
131.2
NAFTA
132.8
134.8
South America
48.0
51.8
Africa
18.9
20.1
Middle East
16.4
18.5
China
489.0
533.0
Japan
119.8
120.0
Other Asia
144.9
152.7
Oceania
8.8
9.0
Total (rounded)
1344
1420
Source: MEPS - World Steel Outlook
MEPS forecasts world steel production in 2008 at 1420 million tonnes. This equates to a 5.7 percent increase on our predicted outturn of 1343.5 million tonnes in 2007. Over the past twelve months demand continued to be firm, with output rising by approximately 7.5 percent.
Blast furnace iron making in 2008 is forecast to top 1000 million tonnes - 6 percent up on our anticipated figure of around 946 million tonnes in 2007. This represents a gain of 8 percent over the 2006 outturn. A substantial rise is also foreseen for direct reduced iron manufacturing in 2008 after significant improvement in the previous twelve months.
EU-27 steel production in 2007 is now expected to be approximately 210 million tonnes. Our forecast for 2008 is marginally higher at 215 million tonnes. We envisage quite stable demand but the domestic producers should claw back some of the previous year’s consumption lost to third country suppliers.
Steel demand in the rest of Europe expanded by almost 2.5 million tonnes in 2007. Strong demand in Turkey was the main driver for this advance.
Crude steel production in the former USSR in 2007 is predicted to be significantly above 124 million tonnes - up by almost 4 percent, year on year. A further substantial improvement is forecast for 2008 - rising to in excess of 130 million tonnes in the region.
Nafta steel production in 2007 will be near to 133 million tonnes - one percent up on the prior year. Further similar improvement is forecast for 2008 now that third country imports are restricted due to the weakness of the US dollar.
Steel production in South America will be near to 48 million tonnes in 2007 - up 6 percent on the year earlier figure. This improvement is mainly due to rising local demand. Further growth to near 52 million tonnes is anticipated for 2008.
Steel production in 2007 in Africa will be slightly up on the outturn in the previous year. A substantial improvement is anticipated for 2008 as new capacity comes on stream and furnace relines are limited.
Production of steel in the Middle East is increasing briskly. Demand is accelerating at a rapid pace. Output in 2007 will be one million tonnes up on the year earlier figure. Gains of more than 2 million tonnes are forecast for 2008.
Steel output in the Asian region will be above 750 million tonnes in 2007 - rising to in excess of 800 million tonnes in the following twelve month period. Consumption from the construction industries is the main driver for this continued substantial improvement.
Steel manufacturing will be marginally higher in Australia in 2007. Further modest improvement is forecast for 2008.
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MEPS (international) ltd. is a leading independent supplier of steel market information.
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